Statistics on accidents

[hhobbit]

To fly or not to fly? I’m an active modeller (chicken) cogitating whether to learn to fly the ones-you-get-into, BTW that includes hang gliders, sailplanes, ultralights, Cessnas, R22s. Total about 20 hours between ‘em all.

From what I read and hear, sports pilots, as distinct from airline types, spend a fair amount of mental effort justifying that what they do is safe, or can be made safe (“risk reduction”) which it is not, as long as you accept the historic fatality rate is too high.

Try this as a working definition:
• Driving=acceptable risk (which must nonetheless be carefully managed)
• Motorcycling= unacceptable risk (stated as true by some, even if carefully managed)

For if what you do is 30 times more risky than driving, and 8 times more than motorcycling, you are in fact way off the scale of normality.

This argument could be modified to include elimination of most attitudes such as illegalism, distraction, boredom, arrogance, bravado, carelessness, distraction, indiscipline, boredom, fatalism, that underlie the human factors stated to be the cause of 85% of (fatal) air accidents. Eliminate? Ah yes, you’re a superman (superior type of human being), and therefore trainable to such a high degree you function at some level like an automaton.

So here’s my proposal: in order to make me a safe pilot, I first prove to the instructor I’m a superman. Kind of wrecks the economics? Of course these human traits are never completely eliminated even from the best trained. Witness high time professionals getting it wrong and getting killed. Can even happen to superman. As Dirty Harry said: “A man’s got to know his limitations”. The grave yards are full of the ignorant who were feeling lucky at some level.

As of now, I consider the only honest justification is death-wish masquerading as thrill seeking. Either you think it’s worth the cost and risk, or you back away and sadly fly models: “if you crash you don’t die”.

At 13.9 fatalities per million hours, flying 1395 hours is what your "ace of Spades" odds (1 in 52) are.
So why the heck do I want to learn to fly?

Message Edited by hhobbit on 11-24-2007 02:06 AM

[hhobbit]

summary of calcs:
13.9
1000000
0.0000139
0.9999861
1395
0.980796154
0.019203846
52.07290336

182H:

http://www.rvproject.com/ntsb.html for RVs, 155 fatalities since early 80s

Message Edited by hhobbit on 11-24-2007 02:09 AM

Message Edited by hhobbit on 11-24-2007 02:09 AM

[notimer]

It is true that the statistics are an average of lots different types of planes and many causes but they show accidents do happen many times. Many times the accidents are not pilot error but rather unexpected things like metal fatigue in an engine valve or wiring insulation failure after years of low level vibration against a bulkhead for example.
Flying offers a lot. I personal love to fly (be flown) but my parents both low time single engine land pilots quit years ago with concerns about the risks.
Even in a car or a boat you are risking your life to some extent just be careful and don't forget to put the dipstick back in when you check the oil. My parents my sister and myself did that on a cross country trip to Sedona, AZ in a 172. Fortunately we successfully made over the mountains and landed safely at Albuquerque, A new dipstick was procured and the rest of the trip was fantastic.

[elmog]

A poster earlier compared flying to motorcycling. All I can tell you is that I have been riding motorcycles regularly since 1975 and have not had a major accident. I've logged over 80,000 miles the hard way (mostly commuting) in just the last 10 years. Believe it or not, I have personally known many more pilots and their passengers that died after making poor decisions in aircraft than fellow riders of motorcycles. Many more. While both are inherently dangerous, I think that flying requires so much more in the way of judgement. You really have to be mature with personal traits that include above average judgement, emotional control under stress, hand-eye coordination, pressured by others without being persuaded, quick decision making and the list goes on. I usually just check the Wx before I hop on my motorcycle to ensure adequate visibility and traction.
You can become a safer pilot by studying and giving yourself a wide margin for error. But when you consider the airlines have a 50:1 better record than GA, it makes you wonder why you fly at all. We all have the attitude that it's always the other guy who going to auger in, but in reality, we are just 1 more flight closer to experiencing the same fate.
I am currently out of license but would not let the stats keep me from getting my BFR and flying again. I know the risks involved (just like motorcycles) and will fly because the experience of aviating outweighs the risk. You do have to come to terms with the risk to prepare yourself fully, and knowing this won't eliminate the risk but it might make you a safer pilot. Jim